Truck capability is shrinking just as shippers most need room to grow. ACT Research’s June For-Hire Trucking Index reveals freight charges holding close to file territory while capability retains tightening, as Class 8 tractor gross sales proceed working below substitute ranges and new federal driver guidelines squeeze the labor pool. For shippers attempting to increase volumes, the truck capability scarcity is not going away soon.
The survey converts month-to-month service responses into a diffusion index, where a studying above 50 indicators growth and a studying below 50 indicators contraction. A flat, unchanged month registers at precisely 50.
The Freight Rate Index fell 9.5 factors month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted 70.2 in June, down from May’s file 79.7. Even with the pullback, June’s studying ranks among the strongest in the survey’s practically 17-year historical past. Market stability has swung decisively in favor of fleets this yr, ACT Research said, including that tight market dynamics are possible to proceed to drive charges greater.
Truck Capacity Shortage Meets Record Freight Rates
The Capacity Index climbed 1.5 factors to 55.0 in June, a 43-month high, even as Class 8 gross sales stay below substitute ranges industrywide. The gain displays bigger, well-run fleets signaling enlargement rather than a broad capability rebound. ACT Research expects enlargement to speed up further in the third and fourth quarters as spot price features work through to contract charges and carriers exchange getting old gear with EPA’27 emissions guidelines in thoughts.
Drivers Remain the Bottleneck
The Driver Availability Index ticked up to 34.1 in June from 32.6 in May, but stays deeply depressed. A wave of new rules from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), including nondomiciled CDL restrictions, tighter ELD and registration fraud enforcement, and driver faculty closures, despatched the index to a five-year low of 30.4 in April after the nondomiciled guidelines took impact in mid-March. The modest May and June upticks counsel near-term stabilization, but ACT Research expects extra shortage to support greater freight charges.
Why Fleets Aren’t Buying Yet
Fleet buy intentions held flat month-over-month, with 47% of carriers planning gear purchases in the next three months, below June’s historic average of 53%. Two forces are holding fleets back: service revenue margins getting into 2026 sat at ranges not seen since the Great Recession, gutting capital spending, and the roughly six-month lag between spot and contract price features left giant carriers with restricted margin enchancment in the first quarter. ACT Research expects that hole to close as price features proceed flowing through.