Get your expectations in examine, bulled-up traders: One of Goldman Sachs’ prime stock strategists sees more gradual stock positive aspects over the next 12 months.
“We should acknowledge that the S&P 500 and indeed other equity markets around the world have had a phenomenal return over the course of the last year and year to date,” Goldman Sachs chief international equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer instructed Yahoo Finance in an unique interview on Opening Bid (video above). “So we’ve already had a lot of good returns behind us. We would expect lower returns from here.”
Oppenheimer has a loyal following on the Street for many prescient calls on shares over the years. In early March, he took a cautious view of markets before shares hit their lows for the yr later that month.
“In most cases, we’re talking about mid- to high-single-digit [percentage] returns over the next 12 months, lower than we’ve been seeing in every region in the last 12 months,” Oppenheimer added. “But still, you know, relatively decent so long as economic growth continues. That’s our expectation.”
To be sure, the components are in place for a more muted backdrop for shares heading into the finish of the yr, after a 12% gain for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) so far in 2026.
For one, a worldwide authorities bond sell-off has intensified with a ferocity that should alarm every investor, massive and small. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury notice (^TNX) — the single most important rate of interest in the world, and the price that units the price of everything from a mortgage to a car loan to a credit card — lately touched its highest stage since 2023.
The 30-year yield (^TYX) is close to a two-decade high, which does nothing to help those planning for their long-term financial security.
And here is what makes this second particularly concerning: Bond yield creep is taking place globally.
Japan’s 10-year bond yield just climbed above 3% for the first time since 1996. British 10-year yields just hit their highest stage since mid-2007. German 10-year bonds are at ranges last seen in 2011 during the peak of the European debt disaster.
“The stock market has been able to ignore these moves so far this year. However, as we have seen in the past, higher yields don’t matter for stocks … until they do,” Miller Tabak strategist Matt Maley wrote in a notice.
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When the bond markets in the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany are all promoting off at the same time, that is not a coincidence — that is a signal.
The signal is that traders worldwide are dropping confidence in governments’ capacity to handle their debt, control inflation, and keep their fiscal homes in good order.