As Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) walked into the St. George & St. Dimitrie Romanian Orthodox Church in Las Vegas on a crisp fall afternoon, he obtained a shot-glass-sized paper cup of țuică — a conventional Romanian plum brandy.
The governor’s eyes widened when the sturdy, sometimes selfmade fruit spirit hit the back of his throat — a welcome drink meant to whet the urge for food and serve as an icebreaker.
The libation came with the toast “noroc,” or good luck in Romanian, from Lia Roberts, president of the parish council and honorary consul for the Romanian Consulate.
Roberts, a former chief of the Nevada Republican Party, guided Lombardo through the room, festooned with Romanian flags and a golden balloon-letter “Romania” signal on the back wall.
Lombardo wore a darkish go well with jacket, darkish blue denims and a Nevada-shaped lapel pin. He greeted attendees with hugs as they shared a meal celebrating the church’s namesake, Saint Dimitrie.
It wasn’t the first time the governor had visited the small parish. As Clark County sheriff, he came steadily.
But just 9 days before Election Day, Lombardo’s go to wasn’t just for neighborhood building. In transient remarks, he said it was a “critical time” for Nevada.
“Your vote matters in the state of Nevada, and unfortunately, when there isn’t a president on the ballot, people tend to be a little apathetic and they don’t show up,” Lombardo said. “We gotta change that.”
The message is the first-term Republican governor’s last pitch to voters in one of the nation’s closest gubernatorial races. Despite a large fundraising and promoting benefit, President Donald Trump’s (R) unpopularity and stubbornly high costs have soured voters on Republicans and given contemporary vitality to Democrats — specifically Lombardo’s challenger Attorney General Aaron Ford (D).
Gov. Joe Lombardo during a luncheon at the Romanian Orthodox Church in Las Vegas on Oct. 25, 2026. (Jeff Scheid/The Nevada Independent)
Prediction market odds have surged in Ford’s favor as early vote totals in the state have been nothing but excellent news for Democrats. A late seven-figure promoting increase from national Democrats has helped the two-term attorney basic even the enjoying subject after being pummeled by pro-Lombardo teams all summer time.
Despite the warning indicators — including GOP tremendous PACs withdrawing spending from supposedly aggressive Southern Nevada House races — the governor hasn’t stopped. Downballot Republicans still eagerly tout his support, and his favorability rankings are still double digits greater than the president.
But will Lombardo be the last Republican standing when the music stops on Election Day? There’s some precedent: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) won re-election in 2022 despite a hostile midterm atmosphere, and former Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) won in the 2006 midterms despite a nationwide blue wave — though with a much completely different state citizens than 2026.
Lombardo’s focus in the last week before the election has been native: visits to a Baptist church, an interview with a conservative radio station, the stop by the Romanian Orthodox church and talking at a groundbreaking for Nevada’s first stand-alone kids’s hospital.
Lombardo informed The Nevada Independent while canvassing in Reno on Friday that he believes faith-based and other communities should hear from him immediately.
“I found out early on when I was a sheriff, even way before I was sheriff as a police officer … we don’t have that complete understanding of the community, especially when you’re a young police officer,” Lombardo said. “As you move forward in your career, you understand you’re only successful as the trust you create with the community.”
It’s also gone under the radar; only the groundbreaking, a door-knocking occasion and one national determine’s go to were suggested to the media. Ford, his Democratic opponent, is holding a number of press conferences every week, partaking immediately with social media personalities and campaigning with 2028 hopefuls including former Vice President Kamala Harris (D) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). The greatest identify showing for Lombardo in the home stretch is possible only recognized to wonks — former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R).
While Ford has not hesitated to nationalize the race and tie Lombardo and Trump at the hip, the incumbent’s strategy is to come across as a reasonable, run on his file, distance himself from Trump and not decrease the financial struggles of Nevadans.
His closing remarks at the Romanian Orthodox church summarize what that appears like in apply.
“We still have a significant amount of work to be done. I need another four years to finish it,” he said.
Gov. Joe Lombardo talks to Rev. Fr. Mihai Bălan and dignitaries during a luncheon at the Romanian Orthodox Church in Las Vegas on Oct. 25, 2026. (Jeff Scheid/The Nevada Independent)
Apples to oranges
The great irony of 2026 is that Ford is operating virtually the actual same playbook that Lombardo did when he efficiently challenged former Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) in 2022.
Lombardo, a two-term Clark County sheriff, defeated Sisolak by linking the then-governor to President Joe Biden (D) and focusing marketing campaign advertisements on inflation and rising prices.
The strategy is still salient 4 years later — despite file job numbers and a falling unemployment fee, Ford’s greatest line of attack has been affordability and the price of dwelling. Emerson College polling exhibits a massive plurality of Nevada voters (43 p.c) view the financial system as their prime subject. Gas costs have hit close to file highs, while high housing and rent prices have continued to fester.
Lombardo even made headlines for saying when it comes to affordability and inflation charges, “I can’t control that” — a tacit admission that the governor has little direct control over the financial system but gets the full brunt of voters’ anger.
Rebecca Gill, a political science professor at UNLV, famous that Nevada’s governor’s race has tightened as the president’s recognition has dropped.
“Trump himself is ensuring that to the best of his ability, when voters think of the Republican who’s on the ticket, they think of Trump,” she said.
In 2022, Sisolak had to contend not only with inflation but with frustration over his response to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated downstream insurance policies, including prolonged unemployment benefit delays. This yr, UNR political science professor Jeremy Gelman said Lombardo does not have those same sorts of tenure-defining insurance policies in play.
“I think the political environment for Republicans this cycle is more challenging than it was for Democrats in 2022, so it cuts both ways,” he said. “The main difference is … the policies between Sisolak and Lombardo were directly traceable to Sisolak. Ford’s trying to make that extra jump to Trump as president.”
While door-knocking in Reno on Friday, Lombardo informed The Nevada Independent that he believes Nevadans perceive the distinction between the federal and the state authorities.
“I’m more concerned about what influence I could have within the boundaries of our state,” he said, including that states have to “build upon the programs that come down from up on high and build upon those, and then the ones that you don’t agree with, you work around until you can get to where you need to be.”
Will voters buy it?
The reply will come from voters comparable to Monique Grant, a 47-year-old who informed The Indy Saturday at the annual Nevada Day parade in Carson City that she identifies as nonpartisan, hasn’t determined who she’s going to vote for yet and plans to review the poll over the weekend. But she’s pissed off by what she described as Trump’s “obvious corruption.”
Another nonpartisan voter at the parade was Erik Charm, a 59-year-old who described himself as proper of heart politically and said Trump has “done some good things” and “some incredibly stupid things.”
Charm said Trump is not weighing into his voting selections, and he’ll vote for Lombardo on Election Day because he likes his expertise as sheriff.
Lombardo said the marketing campaign is listening to a lot about affordability and is focusing on what he has performed as governor and what he can do in a second time period to transfer the state ahead. He added that many politicians fear about the next election or next title, and he’s targeted on shaping the state’s future.
So is he planning any future runs?
“Not at this point,” Lombardo said. “What I’m interested in right now is getting across the finish line successfully here in four or five days.”
Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) at the groundbreaking of the new standalone kids’s hospital in Las Vegas on Oct. 26, 2026. (Jeff Scheid/The Nevada Independent)
‘Bloodied each other up a little bit’
Lombardo swapped his darkish blue denims for darkish grey slacks and a matching blazer before the groundbreaking for Nevada’s first kids’s hospital.
It was a literal red-carpet affair that includes a host of politically highly effective lobbyists and lawmakers. It was good coverage — Las Vegas is the largest metropolitan space without a standalone kids’s hospital — and good politics: Lombardo’s marketing campaign has taken credit for the hospital in TV advertisements.
The night could not have been more completely different from the church where Lombardo broke bread with parishioners, but his typical gruff approach of talking stayed the same.
The viewers responded in form to Lombardo’s opening greeting of “Good evening,” prompting the governor to joke that he had some authority in the space. Later, when fireworks began, he seemed around and requested his employees if there was a taking pictures — many years of expertise as a cop taking over.
During the unveiling, his spouse, Donna, teared up at the tales of kids with cancer who were speaking about the need for the hospital, driving home the personal which means. Their grandson, Teddy, once had a medical emergency that required fast surgical procedure but none of the hospitals in the state had the potential to deal with it.
Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) and his spouse, Donna, to his left, listening to a at the groundbreaking of the new standalone kids’s hospital in Las Vegas on Oct. 26, 2026. (Jeff Scheid/The Nevada Independent)
It’s how voters reply to these feel-good components of Lombardo’s file that will decide if the Republican wins another time period. His marketing campaign advertisements have relentlessly touted his accomplishments, including stats as having the highest job growth in the nation, setting up $900 million in downpayment help and other modifications aimed at addressing the housing disaster. They’ve also featured support from Democrats, including Clark County District Attorney Steve Wolfson (D), while the third-party teams backing him have spent thousands and thousands attacking Ford for his out-of-state journey and votes for clemency for convicted murderers.
With $76 million spent on the race per ad-tracking firm AdImpact, the outcomes have been combined.
“They’ve kind of bloodied each other up a little bit,” Gill from UNLV said, including that Nevada’s lack of a Senate or presidential election has insulated the governor to a certain degree.
Asked about the marketing campaign advertisements, Nevada Day parade attendees total emphasised that they most popular optimistic advertisements about what candidates stand for, rather than destructive ones.
“Tell me why you’re a good candidate, OK,” Charm said. “I would rather hear your positives, if there are any, rather than a misrepresented list of other candidates’ negatives.”
“There’s a lot more attack ads than policy ads,” said Harper Lopiccolo, 22, who voted for Ford. “I learn more about a candidate and the positive things that they’re bringing to the table than just about the negative history that they might have, and so that’s something I’ve noticed a lot of, and I’d obviously like that to change.”
Unlike candidates in other states, Gill famous that Lombardo has walked a line between a pro-Trump main citizens and the median Nevada voter who disapproves of the president.
“Political gravity has caught up with the Trump administration and has kind of splattered onto Republicans more generally,” she said. “But I think he is doing better now than might be expected, just because of how poorly Republicans are doing across the board.”
Gill pointed out that Lombardo is not notably snug with public talking, and the few instances the governor has been in entrance of massive crowds, he’s made gaffes. At an August rally with the president, Lombardo went off-script to defend the president caring for his “billionaire friends” — a clip that has even been run as an advert by Democrats.
It’s led to his marketing campaign focusing on outreach such as roundtables and paid media, where he can largely control the messaging.
He can break through in smaller settings.
At the Romanian Orthodox church in Las Vegas, Agripina Serban, 57, was so moved by the governor’s message that she approached Lombardo marketing campaign staffers afterward, offering to volunteer for the marketing campaign in the last few weeks.
She informed The Nevada Independent the governor’s message gave her “goosebumps,” stemming, she said, from a presence that felt grounded and steeped in real care for the neighborhood. She appreciated his honesty that macro-level modifications to areas such as the financial system are not completed in a single day.
“If they’re on the path of doing certain things, it does take time. … Most people say I voted today, it has to be changed tomorrow. It can’t be,” she said.
Lombardo acknowledged that it can be arduous for messages to break through.
“Sometimes people don’t hear it, and that’s why you’re out knocking on doors, and that’s why you’re meeting people from where their lives are,” he said.
Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) at the groundbreaking of the new standalone kids’s hospital in Las Vegas on Oct. 26, 2026. (Jeff Scheid/The Nevada Independent)
Lombardo’s last stand?
On Wednesday, Lombardo approached a Spanish colonial home in Summerlin with two purple, white and blue wreaths hanging on the door. It was the 50,000th door knocked by his marketing campaign.
Across the road, a practically equivalent home sported a outstanding white-and-blue Ford for Governor signal.
As he spoke to two supporters at the door who had already voted, Lombardo implored them to inform their pals to vote, as properly. “I already am,” one of the supporters said.
She requested Lombardo what he thought was essential to convey people with completely different political beliefs collectively, noting that she talks to her neighbor, who is not a Republican, but does not really feel that’s common.
“There’s a little extreme in both left and right,” Lombardo said, including later that Democrats have also supported him.
“I think it’s a matter of communicating, providing some leadership,” he said about the best approach to navigate the conundrum. “A lot of it’s because of miscommunication. Whether it’s biased broadcasting or not, that’s why I said the education piece is so important.”
To carry the election, Lombardo will need to win over a sizable share of nonpartisan voters — the state’s largest voting bloc. Whether or not he can is largely based mostly on the national atmosphere.
“Lombardo and Ford want to believe that they have a significant effect on the mix of this electorate, and the reality is they probably don’t,” Gelman said. “They might have an effect on the margins, and they might have an effect on whether they run well or less well with certain segments of the electorate, but the broad nature of it, whether it’s going to be more Democratic or more Republican, that cake is baked.”
Gelman said Lombardo is leaning into a strategy referred to as “home style”— a down-to-earth presentation to voters that labored for Democrats in hostile election years, such as Cortez Masto in 2022 and the late Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) in 2010.
Meanwhile, Lombardo is still courting voters.
He informed The Nevada Independent at Wednesday’s door-knocking occasion that he’s not nervous about the voting returns so far, but that it’s important to “keep pushing.”
“Traditionally, in the state of Nevada, those things fluctuate significantly depending on the cycle or where you’re at in the cycle and the actual voting day,” he said.
“People need contact,” the governor continued. “They don’t want you just showing up four years later.”
Reporter Kate Reynolds contributed to this story.