Oil and Treasury yields pushed larger on Wednesday as the U.S.-Iran battle ran into an eleventh straight evening of strikes, sending recent risk premium through power and charges. Gold held a firm safe-haven bid while U.S. equities completed close to flat, with merchants holding back forward of after-hours outcomes from Alphabet and Tesla. The greenback drifted through a uneven, combined session against the majors.
Check out the forex information and financial updates you may have missed in the newest trading session!
Forex News Headlines & Data:
- The U.S. and Iran signaled they aren’t prepared to return to talks after both sides escalated attacks, with oil rising and bond yields climbing on inflation issues, per Bloomberg
- API Crude Oil Stock Change for July 17, 2026: 2.6M (-0.06M earlier)
- Japan Balance of Trade for June 2026: -406.9B (-200.0B forecast; -378.7B earlier)
- Australia Westpac Leading Index for June 2026: 0.0% m/m (-0.2% m/m forecast; 0.0% m/m earlier)
- New Zealand Credit Card Spending for June 2026: 3.1% y/y (4.5% y/y forecast; 5.1% y/y earlier)
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U.Ok. CPI Growth Rate for June 2026: 2.6% y/y (2.6% y/y forecast; 2.8% y/y earlier)
- U.Ok. Core Inflation Rate for June 2026: 2.6% y/y (2.5% y/y forecast; 2.6% y/y earlier)
- U.Ok. Retail Price Index for June 2026: 3.0% y/y (2.9% y/y forecast; 3.1% y/y earlier)
- U.Ok. PPI Output for June 2026: 2.6% y/y (2.3% y/y forecast; 2.3% y/y earlier)
- U.Ok. PPI Input for June 2026: 7.3% y/y (9.0% y/y forecast; 8.7% y/y earlier)
- U.S. MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate for July 17, 2026: 6.69% (6.65% earlier)
- U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications for July 17, 2026: 1.9% (-2.7% earlier)
- EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change for July 17, 2026: 2.01M (-1.69M earlier)
Broad Market Price Action:
Dollar Index, Gold, Oil, S&P 500, U.S. 10-yr Yield, Bitcoin Overlay – Chart Faster With TradingView
Wednesday ran on a single dominant driver. The escalating battle between the U.S. and Iran pushed power and charges larger, gold caught a safe-haven bid, and equities stalled as merchants waited on big-tech earnings.
WTI crude led the majors, closing up around 2.1% close to $86 a barrel. The transfer constructed through the Asian and early European hours, peaking close to $87.90 around 06:00 GMT before easing back and trading in a decrease vary through the U.S. afternoon. The advance tracked the eleventh consecutive evening of U.S.-Iran strikes, which hit army, power, and gasoline infrastructure across several Iranian cities, alongside recent threats to transport through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.
Gold gained roughly 1.3% to commerce close to $4,133. Bullion climbed steadily into the London morning, ran up to about $4,166 around noon, then gave back half of the transfer into the close. With no gold-specific catalyst on the tape, the bid seemingly mirrored safe-haven demand tied to the battle and to central bank shopping for that has underpinned the metallic in latest months.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 0.7% to commerce close to 4.66%, its firmest in roughly two months. Yields tracked the climb in crude as merchants priced in the risk that larger power prices feed through to inflation, seemingly weighing on the Treasury market. The stress lands a week before the Federal Reserve’s coverage assembly, with money markets displaying roughly a 30% probability of a hike and a 70% probability of a maintain.
The S&P 500 completed close to flat, off a contact on the day close to 7,505. The index sagged in a single day to around 7,470, rallied through the New York morning to about 7,526 by noon, then light back through the afternoon. Losses in most megacaps offset a rebound in chipmakers, with Nvidia up about 3%. Traders held positions gentle forward of after-hours outcomes from Alphabet, Tesla, and IBM, outcomes that carry additional weight as stress builds on the group to justify heavy AI spending.
Bitcoin slipped around 0.5% to commerce close to $65,900. It bought off in a single day toward $65,480, then chopped sideways in a huge band for the relaxation of the session without a clear catalyst. The subdued, range-bound tone match a market leaning cautious on risk while equities waited on earnings and the geopolitical image stayed stay.
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FX Market Behavior: U.S. Dollar vs. Majors
Overlay of USD vs. Majors – Chart Faster With TradingView
The U.S. greenback traded uneven and combined on Wednesday, ending arguably internet impartial to barely bearish against the majors. It firmed against the Swiss franc and New Zealand greenback, held roughly flat versus the Aussie and pound, and softened against the euro and a Canadian greenback that drew support from stronger crude.
During the Asian session, the greenback traded uneven with arguably a internet bearish lean against the majors, with no single regional catalyst setting direction.
After the London open, the greenback continued to commerce uneven and principally sideways. The U.Ok. inflation report landed as the session’s predominant knowledge level, with headline CPI holding at 2.6% year-over-year and core regular at 2.6%. The in-line readings gave sterling little to run with, and the greenback drifted without committing to a direction.
After the U.S. session opened, the greenback saw a pickup in volatility and some sharper up-and-down swings, though it principally settled back into uneven, sideways commerce for the relaxation of the day. Rising Treasury yields provided the buck some underlying support, yet firmer crude and steadier European yields stored the euro and the Canadian greenback resilient, capping any clean greenback rally.
By the close, the image stayed combined. An argument could be made that the day’s tilt leaned barely against the greenback, with its softest displaying against the commodity-linked Canadian greenback and the euro, while its firmest came against the franc and the kiwi.
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Upcoming Potential Catalysts on the Economic Calendar
- Australia Employment Situation Update for June 2026 at 1:30 am GMT
- U.Ok. CBI Industrial Trends Orders & Business Optimism Index for July 2026 at 10:00 am GMT
- Canada CFIB Business Barometer for July 2026
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ECB Interest Rate Decision for July 23, 2026 at 12:15 pm GMT
- ECB Press Conference at 12:45 pm GMT
- Canada Retail Sales Prel for June 2026 at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June 2026 at 12:30 pm GMT
- U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for July 18, 2026 at 12:30 pm GMT
- Euro space Consumer Confidence Flash for July 2026 at 2:00 pm GMT
Thursday hinges on whether the energy-driven risk premium retains building and on the European Central Bank. If U.S.-Iran strikes press on and crude stays bid, charges and protected havens could maintain their lead, and the greenback’s combined tone may keep hanging on the tug between larger U.S. yields and firmer oil-linked and European currencies.
The ECB choice stands as the session’s predominant occasion, with the accompanying press convention seemingly to set the tone for the euro, while Australian jobs and U.S. jobless claims spherical out the docket.
Stay frosty out there, forex associates!
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